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Recently President Ma of Taiwan made some surprisingly frank statements regarding Taiwan's relationship with the US (article here). He stated that Taiwan would never ask the Americans to fight China for Taiwan. This of course was met with a hail of criticism from pro-Independence Taiwanese groups. Some said this indicated his attention to reunify with China and others simply accused him of damaging relations with the US. I think he did neither- but first a little background.

Taiwan has a celebrated and storied "ambiguous relationship" with the United States. For most of the 20th century America never expressly stated whether it would come to the aid of Taiwan if the Chinese attempted an invasion. George W. Bush was the first American President to say what we would actually do (article here). No points for guessing whether he promised to turn tail and run or stand and fight for our tiny democratic ally. Anyhow, that was just one statement and measured over sixty years of ambiguity it don't amount to much. Plus, when Pres. Bush said that it was before we were in Afghanistan + Iraq x unsustainable debt.

So- as for President Ma... when he mentioned that he was not going to ask the Americans to fight the Chinese he also mentioned that Taiwan was capable of defending itself BUT it required American weapons to do so. The chances of America starting World War III with the Chinese over Taiwan (when a negotiated settlement would be much easier, cheaper, and less bloody) are minute; the chances of the Americans continuing to sell weapons to a tiny island ally whose very existence prevents the Chinese navy from wondering to far into the West Pacific is very high. President Ma was probably just reassuring the leadership in Beijing that he was not out to start World War III and to reassure the Obama administration that the weapon sales are appreciated AND they are worthwhile. A Taiwan that can defend itself well against a Chinese incursion is less likely to need American assistance in the end anyway.

Anyhow- a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would take months to pull off. First the Chinese would have to win an air war. Then they would have to invade Jinmen, Matsu, and Penghu. Then they would have to isolate Taiwan proper. It would take weeks before the troop transports were even loaded (assuming China had enough troop transports for the 70,000 soldiers it would minimally need... and it doesn't have those troop transports because most of its spare steel goes to apartment buildings for its rapidly urbanizing population.)

During those weeks America might decide to get involved regardless of what Pres. Ma says, the Japanese might decide to get involved, but bare minimum China's trade with the outside world would plummet and the possibility of a domestic revolution would dramatically increase. All this to assert political control over an island whose political and economic freedom have actually benefited the mainland via trade with the outside world?

The Chinese government is very savvy, they aren't going to plunge the world or their country into a war they don't need.