Crying Wolf and such

The US Department of Defense recently published its annual report on the "Military Power of the People's Republic of China" and pundits and analysts are combing through it to determine both what it may mean and what they can make it mean. David Isenberg, whose blog history has very little to do with East Asia affairs, has weighed in that the DoD is inflating China's threat capacity in order to inflate its own budget. While I have not read the annual report in its entirety I have read a number of excerpts, including those in Isenberg's most recent article and am unsure how he came to his conclusions or why he even wrote the article.

Throughout the article he praises the report but repeatedly implies that its true purpose was to raise alarm bells about China. He also reworks the old axiom that in the post-Cold War world parts of the US military industrial complex are determined to turn China into their reason for existing and for the US taxpayer to continue cutting checks. While that certainly describes some officials the "nuanced" and un-alarmist tone of the report belies their influence.

The report states that China leads the region in defense spending, especially considering that more than half of its estimated defense spending is undeclared and unaccounted for. There are even popular rumors on the mainland that the illegal DVD industry is partially run by the PLA as an extra source of income for the military. Isenberg plays down China's defense spending by comparing it to Taiwan: in GDP terms Taiwan's defense spending is only .1% less than China's defense spending. This is an interesting but altogether useless fact. Taiwan's military prepares for a single threat: attack from the mainland. This is something that Beijing repeatedly threatens, nay, promises if Taiwan declares independence. China doesn't even need an expensive invasion force- its got hundreds of comparatively cheap missiles ready to cross the straight! Moreover, Taiwan's GDP is less than one tenth the size of China's- as is its military spending. China has no powerful enemies loudly demanding it cease to exist as a political entity (how many fighter wings does the Dalai Lama have?) Try again Isenberg... and he does in comparing China with India.

India's defense spending, as a percentage of its GDP, is slightly higher than China's but the Indian economy is half of the size and has a running conflict with Pakistan to keep in mind- not to mention that China has defeated India in two wars in the last half of the twentieth century and India is always concerned there may be a third. Add to that an unstable Afghanistan and the recent terror attacks in Mumbai and I might find myself shoveling money to the Jawans too.

The obvious comparison is with the United States- American military spending dwarfs the Chinese. That being said America has military agreements with over one hundred different countries and the threat of American action stabilizes regions all over the world. China, on the contrary, eschews permanent alliances as potential infringements on sovereignty and doesn't give much of a damn about other country's situations.

None of that is to say that China doesn't have security concerns. It has separatist movements in a handful of provinces, a porous border with schizophrenic North Korea, and a semi-recent history of being ganged up on. It's just important to remember that comparing the military budgets of these four countries is like comparing apples to the Jonas Brothers; it's fun to talk about but complete waste of time.

Isenberg's article plays down the perceived Chinese threat to America and depending upon his intended audience that may be appropriate. However, China has made no secret that it wishes to be respected as a great power and a symptom of that is America writing annual reports about its military capabilities. Some analysts may find the United States' overpreparedness distasteful but it is also prudent.

At the moment I'm leaning towards concluding that Isenberg is one of many analysts who see the true threat to America in less glamorous places than a big and scary, nominally Communist country. China can be a boogeyman for some people and a raison d'etre for more than one defense department program but that isn't to say we shouldn't treat them the way they seek to be treated: as a power to be reckoned with and about.

Below: Areas of China where people are not positive that they want to be in China.